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7

El Barrio

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 84

Woodbine · Race 4 - Optional Claiming · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength86%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 27/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 6f Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS27/06C6C6 @ Woodbine 17/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 32 · 7f Yie 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2025 · OR 32 par17/08C6OR 32C6 @ Woodbine 13/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 57 · 1m Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 57 par13/09C6OR 57C0 @ Belmont At The Big A 04/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 70 · 1m110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 70 par4/10C?OR 70C6 @ Woodbine 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 72 · 1m110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 72 par30/05C6OR 72projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-30Woodbine?4th3rd+1
2025-10-04Belmont At The Big A?11th4th+6
2025-09-13Woodbine?1st0th+1
2025-08-17Woodbine?2nd1st+1
2025-06-27Churchill Downs?8th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0617/0813/094/1030/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength90%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/06/20258th20/10%0%0.00
17/08/20252nd6/168%80%+0.12
13/09/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
04/10/202511th25/10%0%0.00
30/05/20264th15/261%67%+0.06