Kinzie Girl
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 76
Woodbine · Race 4 - Optional Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Woodbine | BHA83 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 20/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |