3
Lorraine's Beauty
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 76
Woodbine · Race 4 - Optional Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 8-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 11/12/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 12/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |