Armored Guard
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 64
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -24.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 12/07/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 09/07/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 11/09/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |