Butterfly Billie
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 64
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
55%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |