1
Hope She Fires
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 63
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 12-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 26/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 17/09/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |