3
Miss Candy Girl
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 60
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength9%
Delivery trend +7.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 01/02/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 14/03/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |