13
Serious Green
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 73
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 09/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |