Superfly Chick
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 78
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-08-24 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 24/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 15/11/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 63% | -0.27 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |