Backgammon
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 96
Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#7
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 3rd | +5 |
| 2026-02-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 27/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 07/02/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 07/03/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 05/07/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |