Etawa
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 91
Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 11/09/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 89% | -0.04 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |