5
Mary Goodnight
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 84
Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +19.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 13/09/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |