Candy Coated

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 63

Woodbine · Race 7 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

21%

Place Prob

29%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength27%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-10	Woodbine	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-14	Woodbine	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-07-18	Woodbine	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6
2026-06-20	Woodbine	?	7th	6th	+1	3.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength96%

Delivery trend +23.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/06/2026	7th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
18/07/2026	6th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
14/08/2026	8th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
10/09/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	67%	+0.30