Moscato Babe

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 65

Woodbine · Race 7 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength14%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-06	Woodbine	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2025-08-09	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6
2025-07-14	Ellis Park	?	11th	10th	+1	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength12%

Delivery trend -10.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
14/07/2025	11th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
09/08/2025	6th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
06/09/2026	3rd	7/2	82%	60%	-0.22