3
Chargethatmountain
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 70
Woodbine · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 17/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |