Texas Holiday
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 66
Woodbine · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 9th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 05/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 16/10/2025 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 14% | -0.73 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 17% | -0.76 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |