4
Where's Samnbailey
6yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 74
Woodbine · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-17 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength63%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/2023 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 24/05/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 14/06/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 17/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 10/08/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |