Agia Marina
4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 88
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 10/08/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 55% | -0.28 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 19/07/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |