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Don't Jinx It

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 97

Belmont Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

29%

Place Prob

30%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength75%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 02/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 91 · 1m1f Fm 118 · below its mark02/03/2025 · OR 91 par2/03C6OR 91C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 23/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 89 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark23/04/2025 · OR 89 parC6 @ Delaware Park 13/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 95 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark13/06/2025 · OR 95 par13/06C6OR 95C5 @ Colonial Downs 17/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 95 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/07/2025 · OR 95 parC6 @ Saratoga 31/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 94 · 1m1f Fm 122 · beat its mark31/08/2025 · OR 94 par31/08C6OR 94C5 @ Delaware Park 27/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 96 · 1m1f Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 96 parC1 @ Aqueduct 15/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 100 · 1m3f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/11/2025 · OR 100 par15/11C1OR 100C1 @ Monmouth Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 105 · 1m110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 105 parC6 @ Saratoga 19/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 95 · 1m3f 126 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 95 par19/07C6OR 95projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Saratoga?6th6th0
2026-06-13Monmouth Park?4th-2th+5
2025-11-15Aqueduct?3rd-3th+5
2025-09-27Delaware Park?2nd1st+1
2025-08-31Saratoga?1st1st0
2025-07-17Colonial Downs?5th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0317/0715/1119/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength92%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/03/20255th14/126%64%+0.37
23/04/20252nd10/382%88%+0.05
13/06/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
17/07/20255th3/184%43%-0.41
31/08/20251st25/10%100%+1.00
27/09/20252nd3/184%86%+0.02
15/11/20253rd40/10%71%+0.71
13/06/20264th12/137%40%+0.03
19/07/20266th11/271%29%-0.42