Thankfulness
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 97
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | BHA98 | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +12.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 56% | -0.38 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |