3
Weighted Average
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 98
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
65%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | -3th | +5 |
| 2025-11-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-04 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-01-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 84/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2023 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 18% | -0.66 |
| 15/09/2024 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 14/11/2024 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 09/01/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 90% | -0.02 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 91% | -0.03 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 1/7 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 24/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |