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3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 75

Belmont Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f

#7

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Tampa Bay Downs 07/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 73 · 1m39y Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 73 par7/02C5OR 73C8 @ Belmont At The Big A 03/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 74 · 1m110y Fm 120 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 74 parC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 24/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 75 · 1m110y 120 · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 75 par24/05C8OR 75C5 @ Saratoga 06/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 83 · 1m110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 83 parC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 80 · 1m110y Fm 120 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 80 par27/06C8OR 80C7 @ Monmouth Park 05/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 81 · 1m110y Gd 117 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Monmouth Park 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 82 · 1m110y Fm 117 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 82 par11/07C8OR 82C8 @ Monmouth Park 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 1m 117 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 82 parC7 @ Saratoga 05/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 77 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 77 par5/09C7OR 77projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Saratoga?11th12th−1
2026-07-19Monmouth Park?1st3rd−2
2026-07-11Monmouth Park?2nd4th−2
2026-07-05Monmouth Park?5th6th−1
2026-06-27Belmont At The Big A?6th8th−2
2026-06-06Saratoga?10th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/026/0611/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 6-7 · tight 84/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/02/20267th50/10%0%0.00
03/05/20265th14/126%56%+0.29
24/05/20263rd9/153%50%-0.03
06/06/202610th50/10%10%+0.10
27/06/20266th10/147%17%-0.31
05/07/20265th16/116%33%+0.18
11/07/20262nd11/486%88%+0.02
19/07/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
05/09/202611th40/10%0%0.00