3
Frosted Over
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 94
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-31 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 5-8 · tight 72/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength8%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2024 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 73% | -0.19 |
| 22/02/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 11/04/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 31/05/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 02/08/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 10% | -0.43 |
| 14/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 06/09/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |