Harrow
8yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 8 · OR 107
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
64%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2026-04-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | -3th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2024 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/01/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 14/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 12/07/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 08/02/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |