5
Likeness
3yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 93
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 07/11/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |