Polar Bear Plunge

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 2 · OR 92

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f 110y

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▲2

Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.5

Today:

Class gap: -2.0

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-24	Belmont Park	?	8th	10th	−2	1.0
2026-08-28	Saratoga	?	2nd	4th	−2	5.6
2026-07-03	Saratoga	?	2nd	4th	−2	5.6
2026-06-20	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	7th	−2	2.6
2026-04-30	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	7th	−2	2.6
2026-03-16	Fair Grounds	?	6th	8th	−2	1.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 7-8 · tight 85/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
18/01/2026	1st	3/1	84%	100%	+0.16
29/01/2026	2nd	13/2	66%	86%	+0.20
19/02/2026	5th	9/4	88%	56%	-0.33
16/03/2026	6th	7/1	63%	29%	-0.35
30/04/2026	5th	14/1	26%	43%	+0.17
20/06/2026	5th	11/4	86%	33%	-0.52
03/07/2026	2nd	11/2	71%	83%	+0.12
28/08/2026	2nd	10/1	47%	83%	+0.36
24/09/2026	8th	11/8	93%	30%	-0.63