7
Promissio
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 97
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-24 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength4%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 08/06/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 21/07/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |