10
Medieval
2yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 10 · OR 45
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength64%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-05-15 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 5-12 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength31%
Delivery trend +25.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 18/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |