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3

Vapor Trail

2yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 55

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS25/06C6C6 @ Saratoga 19/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 50 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 50 par19/07C6OR 50projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Saratoga?8th5th+3
2026-06-25Belmont At The Big A?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0619/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +58.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/06/20266th9/153%17%-0.36
19/07/20268th25/10%22%+0.22