IvyArcIvyArc
8

Wartoendallwars

2yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 8 · OR 29

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y

#11

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 15/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS15/08C6C6 @ Saratoga 06/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 49 · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 49 par6/09C6OR 49projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Saratoga?9th6th+3
2026-08-15Saratoga?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/086/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 12-12 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -17.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/08/20266th33/10%29%+0.29
06/09/20269th50/10%11%+0.11