Edgerton
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 89
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-02-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 18/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 73% | -0.10 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |