Hammerhead
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 9 · OR 98
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 11th | 4th | +6 |
| 2025-10-25 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 90% | -0.01 |
| 30/08/2025 | 11th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 04/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 24/01/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 9% | -0.17 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 07/09/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 30% | -0.33 |