Hard Circle
4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 3 · OR 95
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 22/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 91% | +0.38 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |