IvyArcIvyArc
2

In The Dark

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 2 · OR 90

Belmont Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#8

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 14/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 90 · 5f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/08/2025 · OR 90 par14/08C6OR 90C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 20/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 88 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 88 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 23/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 90 par23/10C6OR 90C6 @ Turfway Park 22/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 91 · 1m 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 91 parC9 @ Turfway Park 01/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 84 · 6f110y 125 · below its mark01/03/2026 · OR 84 par1/03C9OR 84C9 @ Aqueduct 24/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 77 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 77 parC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 80 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 80 par19/06C8OR 80C8 @ Saratoga 23/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 82 · 1m110y 126 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 82 parC8 @ Saratoga 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 89 · 1m110y Fm 126 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 89 par27/08C8OR 89projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Saratoga?1st2nd−1
2026-07-23Saratoga?6th7th−1
2026-06-19Belmont At The Big A?2nd3rd−1
2026-04-24Aqueduct?1st3rd−2
2026-03-01Turfway Park?9th11th−2
2026-01-22Turfway Park?9th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0822/0119/0627/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength76%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/20254th6/168%50%-0.18
20/09/20254th16/116%63%+0.47
23/10/20257th25/10%0%0.00
22/01/20269th25/10%11%+0.11
01/03/20269th9/153%27%-0.25
24/04/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
19/06/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
23/07/20266th8/158%38%-0.20
27/08/20261st13/266%100%+0.34