Pineland

6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 103

Belmont Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength34%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.6

Today:

Class gap: +0.9

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-09	Saratoga	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-28	Woodbine	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-06-04	Delaware Park	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-05-07	Churchill Downs	?	10th	9th	+1	1.2
2026-04-09	Keeneland	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2026-03-16	Fair Grounds	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 27/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength37%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
25/10/2025	1st	15/2	61%	100%	+0.39
27/12/2025	4th	7/2	82%	57%	-0.24
24/01/2026	3rd	3/1	84%	78%	-0.06
16/03/2026	6th	7/1	63%	17%	-0.46
09/04/2026	2nd	25/1	0%	89%	+0.89
07/05/2026	10th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66
04/06/2026	2nd	11/4	86%	86%	+0.00
28/06/2026	6th	10/3	82%	29%	-0.54
09/08/2026	5th	5/1	74%	50%	-0.24