Corvus

4yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 79

Belmont Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 1m

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength28%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-21	Finger Lakes	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2026-09-04	Saratoga	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-08-02	Saratoga	?	11th	11th	0	1.0
2026-07-18	Saratoga	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-14	Belmont At The Big A	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-05-10	Belmont At The Big A	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 10-11 · tight 86/100

▬ RUNS TO FORM

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/02/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	83%	+0.46
21/03/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	80%	+0.04
17/04/2026	4th	9/1	53%	57%	+0.05
10/05/2026	7th	20/1	0%	14%	+0.14
14/06/2026	6th	10/1	47%	29%	-0.19
18/07/2026	5th	10/1	47%	50%	+0.03
02/08/2026	11th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00
04/09/2026	4th	15/2	61%	67%	+0.06
21/09/2026	2nd	7/2	82%	80%	-0.02