Maximum Heat

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 10 · OR 86

Belmont Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 1m

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

67%

Place Prob

41%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength22%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: -0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-15	Saratoga	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-08-07	Saratoga	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6
2026-07-11	Saratoga	?	5th	4th	+1	5.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 52/100

▬ RUNS TO FORM

Trend▼

Strength49%

Delivery trend -4.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/07/2026	5th	10/1	47%	60%	+0.13
07/08/2026	6th	6/1	68%	55%	-0.14
15/08/2026	1st	8/15	97%	100%	+0.03