7
Smilensaycheese
4yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 87
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Belmont Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 86/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 30/04/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 31/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/09/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |