Who's Your Zaddy

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 74

Belmont Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 1m

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

14%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength34%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.1

Today:

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-14	Saratoga	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-07-31	Saratoga	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-06-03	Saratoga	?	12th	10th	+2	1.0
2026-05-10	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-04-03	Aqueduct	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-02-14	Aqueduct	?	2nd	1st	+1	8.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 6-11 · tight 64/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength10%

Delivery trend -8.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
14/02/2026	2nd	11/4	86%	86%	+0.00
03/04/2026	1st	10/11	95%	100%	+0.05
10/05/2026	5th	7/2	82%	43%	-0.39
03/06/2026	12th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
31/07/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	67%	+0.06
14/08/2026	6th	11/2	71%	0%	-0.71