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4

Aperitif

4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 77

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 50 · 6f Fm 118 · beat its mark19/06/2025 · OR 50 par19/06C9OR 50C6 @ Saratoga 18/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 62 · 5f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 62 parC6 @ Saratoga 21/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 70 · 5f110y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 70 par21/08C6OR 70C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 09/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 77 · 6f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 77 parC6 @ Aqueduct 06/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 79 · 6f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 79 par6/11C6OR 79C6 @ Aqueduct 23/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 65 · 6f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 65 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 17/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 66 · 6f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 66 par17/05C6OR 66C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 68 · 6f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 68 parC6 @ Colonial Downs 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 78 · 5f110y Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 78 par21/08C6OR 78projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Colonial Downs?1st0th+1
2026-06-21Belmont At The Big A?3rd2nd+1
2026-05-17Belmont At The Big A?2nd1st+1
2026-04-23Aqueduct?5th4th+1
2025-11-06Aqueduct?8th7th+1
2025-10-09Belmont At The Big A?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/069/1017/0521/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength46%

Delivery trend -6.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/06/20254th16/116%73%+0.57
18/07/20254th20/10%63%+0.63
21/08/20252nd15/261%89%+0.28
09/10/20252nd10/382%86%+0.03
06/11/20258th16/116%13%-0.03
23/04/20265th4/179%56%-0.23
17/05/20262nd8/158%88%+0.30
21/06/20263rd9/276%82%+0.06
21/08/20261st5/287%100%+0.13