Emergency Nine

3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 8 · OR 80

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength25%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.5

Today:

Class gap: 0.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-22	Saratoga	?	9th	7th	+2	2.8
2026-07-19	Saratoga	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-05-17	Belmont At The Big A	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 22/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength38%

Delivery trend -12.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/05/2026	6th	9/1	53%	38%	-0.15
19/07/2026	1st	9/2	76%	100%	+0.24
22/08/2026	9th	15/2	61%	20%	-0.41