3
Miss American Pie
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 63
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2025-07-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 11-12 · tight 87/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2024 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 08/02/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 21/03/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 24/04/2025 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 9% | -0.49 |
| 03/07/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 29/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 08/02/2026 | 12th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 04/09/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |