On A Summer Day
4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 6 · OR 76
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Belmont Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 18/01/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 02/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 24/09/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |