Pelican Pride

3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 85

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength22%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: -0.1

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-06	Saratoga	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-07-19	Saratoga	?	10th	9th	+1	1.0
2026-06-07	Saratoga	?	10th	9th	+1	1.0
2026-05-08	Belmont At The Big A	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 41/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength24%

Delivery trend +11.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/05/2026	3rd	9/4	88%	71%	-0.17
07/06/2026	10th	10/3	82%	18%	-0.64
19/07/2026	10th	8/1	58%	18%	-0.40
06/09/2026	1st	11/4	86%	100%	+0.14