7

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7yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 78

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Laurel Park 27/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 86 · 5f110y Fm 123 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 86 par27/09C7OR 86C7 @ Belmont At The Big A 24/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 88 · 6f Fm 123 · below its mark24/10/2025 · OR 88 parC5 @ Aqueduct 09/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/11/2025 · OR 90 par9/11C5OR 90C8 @ Aqueduct 01/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 85 · 6f110y Gd 123 · below its mark01/03/2026 · OR 85 parC5 @ Aqueduct 18/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 77 par18/04C5OR 77C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 09/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 76 · 1m110y Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 76 parC5 @ Saratoga 07/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m110y Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 75 par7/06C5OR 75C8 @ Monmouth Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 83 · 5f110y Fm 121 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 83 parC7 @ Saratoga 20/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 78 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 78 par20/08C7OR 78projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Saratoga?7th7th0
2026-07-25Monmouth Park?4th5th−1
2026-06-07Saratoga?9th7th+2
2026-05-09Belmont At The Big A?5th3rd+2
2026-04-18Aqueduct?4th2nd+2
2026-03-01Aqueduct?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/091/037/0620/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 8-12 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength10%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20252nd2/189%83%-0.06
24/10/20255th14/126%56%+0.29
09/11/20254th12/137%57%+0.20
01/03/20265th20/10%20%+0.20
18/04/20264th14/126%63%+0.36
09/05/20265th20/10%33%+0.33
07/06/20269th33/10%11%+0.11
25/07/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
20/08/20267th33/10%14%+0.14