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12

Tuthilltown

3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 12 · OR 83

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

19%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 31/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 6f Slo 119 · HIGHER CLASS31/07C6C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 80 · 6f Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/11/2025 · OR 80 parC6 @ Aqueduct 13/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 83 · 6f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 83 par13/12C6OR 83C6 @ Aqueduct 09/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 82 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 82 parC6 @ Saratoga 04/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 83 · 7f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 83 par4/06C6OR 83C9 @ Belmont At The Big A 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 78 · 6f Fm 121 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Saratoga 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 79 · 5f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 79 par25/07C5OR 79C5 @ Saratoga 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 80 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 80 parC5 @ Belmont Park 18/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 83 · 7f Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 83 par18/09C5OR 83projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Belmont Park?2nd0th+2
2026-08-22Saratoga?4th2nd+2
2026-07-25Saratoga?2nd0th+2
2026-06-20Belmont At The Big A?1st3rd−2
2026-06-04Saratoga?6th5th+1
2026-04-09Aqueduct?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/079/0425/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 83/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/07/20253rd15/890%67%-0.23
02/11/20252nd2/189%91%+0.01
13/12/20253rd9/276%82%+0.06
09/04/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
04/06/20266th4/179%55%-0.24
20/06/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
25/07/20262nd4/179%91%+0.12
22/08/20264th5/174%70%-0.04
18/09/20262nd10/382%91%+0.08