Dawn After Dawn
4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 3 · OR 72
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 18/08/2025 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 86% | -0.12 |
| 15/09/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 08/10/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 15/11/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 07/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 19/03/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |