1
Lucky Louisa
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 85
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +6.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |