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5

Money Trail

4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 82

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 10/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 79 · 1m110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/01/2026 · OR 79 par10/01C6OR 79C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 22/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 85 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark22/02/2026 · OR 85 parC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 18/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fm 123 · below its mark18/03/2026 · OR 86 par18/03C9OR 86C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 10/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 82 · 1m Fm 126 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 82 parC6 @ Gulfstream 17/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 80 · 1m110y Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 80 par17/05C6OR 80C6 @ Gulfstream 14/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 1m70y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Gulfstream 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 81 · 1m Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 81 par12/07C5OR 81C7 @ Gulfstream 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 81 · 1m Fm 126 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 81 parC7 @ Gulfstream 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 80 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 80 par5/09C7OR 80projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Gulfstream?3rd3rd0
2026-08-08Gulfstream?6th6th0
2026-07-12Gulfstream?1st-1th+2
2026-06-14Gulfstream?1st0th+1
2026-05-17Gulfstream?3rd2nd+1
2026-04-10Tampa Bay Downs?3rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0110/0412/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 5-12 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength23%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/01/20268th33/10%30%+0.30
22/02/20263rd7/282%75%-0.07
18/03/20262nd1/195%83%-0.11
10/04/20263rd5/493%78%-0.16
17/05/20263rd9/488%71%-0.17
14/06/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
12/07/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
08/08/20266th3/184%29%-0.56
05/09/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30