2
Etchebaster
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 5
Chantilly · Prix D'indrolles Stakes · 6f 211y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼3
Strength59%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Chantilly | 2 | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chantilly | 2 | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 58/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 02/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |